India v South Africa: Early fireworks, seam strengths and the left-arm spin challenge

On October 29, 2025, South Africa Women's team scripted their biggest triumph yet. A day later, India Women experienced arguably the greatest day of their cricketing history. And yet, both remain a step away from the ultimate prize.

A little over a year ago, the Women's T20 World Cup final featured neither Australia nor England - the first such occurrence in nine editions of the competition's history. The ODI World Cup 2025 has thrown up the exact historic first, ensuring that a new team - India or South Africa - will have their hands on the trophy.

Of the two teams, hosts India have undergone a tougher route. Their three consecutive defeats against the eventual semifinalists put them in danger of elimination, before they outbatted New Zealand in Navi Mumbai. It would've needed a herculean effort to go past the seven-time winners Australia in the semifinals, and the hosts responded with a run-chase for the ages.

South Africa, meanwhile, have seen it all. Their five straight wins in the league phase were sandwiched between crushing batting collapses against England (69 all-out) and Australia (97 all-out). They were rescued by Nadine de Klerk and Chloe Tryon against India and Bangladesh respectively, while the other four wins, including the semi-final, were outright convincing.

India lead 20-13 in head-to-head ODIs, which reads an even more impressive 5-1 post that heartbreaking defeat in the 2022 edition. South Africa's all-round depth however - which India have already seen earlier in the competition - evens it up ahead of the final.

Firepower at the top

Only two batting pairs have ever aggregated 1000-plus runs in a calendar year ever, both in 2025: Smriti Mandhana and Pratika Rawal (1557 at 77.85) and Tazmin Brits and Laura Wolvaardt (1120 at 74.66). While Pratika has been ruled out due to injury, Mandhana has familiarity at the other end with Shafali Varma, whose five-ball stay at the crease in the semifinal hints at a refreshing, aggressive approach.

South Africa's semi-final win was set up by a 116-run opening stand, but Brits's run of extremities could worry them. Her last 11 ODI innings feature four hundreds, scores of 55* and 45, to go with five single-digit scores including three ducks. It is that aspect that contributes to the difference between the two teams in terms of the opening partnership numbers and run-rate in the first 10 overs in the tournament.

Team-wise opening partnership run-rates in the tournament (by averages)

Team-wise batting in Overs 1-10 in the tournament

Kapp leads South Africa's seam-bowling prowess

South Africa's seam attack is the only one to have gone at less than five runs per over (ER: 4.66) in the competition, their average of 27 only bettered marginally by Pakistan (26.11), who played just four completed games in more bowling friendly conditions in Colombo. Led by Marizanne Kapp, they have been especially impeccable with the new ball, having conceded at just 3.81 (pace and spin combined, 3.41 for quicks). India's bowlers have gone at 4.86 in the phase, the second-worst in the tournament.

Team-wise bowling in Overs 1-10 in the tournament

The only bowler to have clocked 130-plus kmph in the tournament so far, Kapp has bagged 19 wickets in the first 10 overs in ODIs since 2024, the most for anyone, while maintaining an average of 13.89 and an economy of 3.14. She unsettled the England top-order in the semi-final on Wednesday, and has a fine record against India too, with 24 wickets from as many games while conceding at 3.72. Furthermore, she has a great matchup against India's batting mainstays. More on that later.

India, meanwhile, have had their struggles on the seam-bowling front, and the gulf between the two attacks is alarming against the stronger opponents. That could hurt the hosts if they bowl second in the final, for spinners have struggled under lights at the venue.

Seam bowling stats in matches featuring only the semi-finalists

The blueprint for Indian seamers - keep it straight and simple

It is no secret that Wolvaardt, who currently leads the tournament run-scoring charts by a fair distance, is a dominant off-side player, especially against pace, the booming cover drive being a standout feature of her batting. Half of her runs against pace (50.5%) in the competition have come across the covers and backward point zones, and numbers further suggest that straighter lines have worked against the right-hander.

Wolvaardt vs seam in the tournament (by lines)

The lines mentioned above are with respect to stumps/impact, and not where the ball pitched.

Furthermore, the Wolvaardt has managed just 7 off 42 while being dismissed twice to balls projected to hit the stumps from seamers. While India batters have been exceptional against such deliveries compared to other teams, South Africa have had much inferior numbers. That they don't have a left-hander in the line-up eases it for India, should they plan this line of attack.

Batting vs balls projected to hit the stumps from seamers at CWC 2025

Spin to win and the challenges under lights

India have been by far the best batting unit against spin in the competition, averaging 45.47 while maintaining a strike-rate of 93.14 (only second to Australia's 96). The corresponding numbers for South Africa read 27.37 and 89.11 respectively, and it may be noted that they are the only team to not have a single left-hander bat in the competition. Twice, they have succumbed to spinners turning the ball away: Linsey Smith (3/7) and Sophie Ecclestone (2/19) in their tournament opener, and Alana King (7/18) later.

Shree Charani (1/37 in 10 overs) was the only one to have kept things quiet when these two teams faced off earlier in the competition, despite Kapp hitting a four and a six in her first over. India have added more left-arm spin to their line-up, with Radha Yadav having replaced Sneh Rana in the XI.

Spinners, however, have fared better in the first innings (average: 23.12, ER: 4.63), than the second (average: 38.91, ER: 5.08) in the competition, and it has been no different in Navi Mumbai. Australian spinners collectively returned 0/157 in 23.3 overs in the semi-final, the most they have bowled (or conceded) in an ODI without bagging a single wicket.

Spinners in Navi Mumbai in the tournament (by innings number)

Seamers, meanwhile, have fared better with the new ball under lights at the venue - averaging 23.80 and conceding at 3.83 in the first 10 overs, as opposed to 47.66 and 4.93 respectively in the first innings.

Can India ace the left-arm spin challenge?

India thoroughly dominated New Zealand and Australia spinners in their last two completed outings, but their mid-campaign stutter had started against South Africa's left-arm spin duo of Nonkululeko Mlaba and Tryon, who returned 5/78 combined in 20 overs between them. India stumbled from 55/0 in 10 overs to 102/6 by the end of the 26th, scoring at 2.93 in the latter phase.

That was just the 15th of the 16 instances of Tryon completing her 10-over quota in a 123-match ODI career, and the spin-twins could be the potent weapons once again on Sunday. Shafali Verma has aggregated 84 off 121 with five dismissals (Avg: 16.8, SR: 69.42) against left-arm spin in the format, and the in-form Mandhana and Harmanpreet Kaur too, have had their struggles in recent times. Rodrigues has used the sweeps (conventional and reverse) to good effect so far, but the stroke had brought her downfall earlier in the tournament.

India batters vs left-arm spin (since WI series in Dec 2024)

India's fielding woes

India have shelled down a staggering 78 catches in 35 ODIs since 2024 (catching efficiency: 66.2%); 30 clear of the next-most. That has been a recurring feature in their campaign so far. Fielding has often been the difference in title wins and heartbreaks, and even the mighty Australia weren't immune to it in the semifinal.

Jemimah Rodrigues was given four reprieves - two fairly straightforward chances - during her stay at the crease. That's the joint-most dropped catches for any batter against Australia in Women's ODIs (where ball-by-ball data is available since 2013), alongside as many for Amy Jones at the Junction Oval, Melbourne in January this year.

India's fielding in the tournament

Catches taken: 35

Catches dropped: 18 (most)

Catching efficiency: 66% (second-worst)

Stumpings missed: 3 (joint-most)

Misfields: 74 (most)

Balls with overthrows: 6 (most)

Key matchups:

India's mainstays vs Kapp

Kapp has a healthy matchup against India's four most experienced batters. While Mandhana, Rodrigues and Deepti have been kept quiet, Harmanpreet has had four dismissals against the quick. Mandhana's imperious run however, could put these numbers to bed, as she has shown against Ashleigh Gardner recently. That she has dominated Ayabonga Khaka in the format (156 off 158, two dismissals, SR: 98.73) helps her case further, should Kapp find her rhythm right away from her end.

India batters vs Kapp in ODIs

Wolvaardt vs India spinners

Should India fail to dismiss Wolvaardt early in her innings, they will try to limit damage from her end with spinners in operation. She had struck at 74.28 against pace and 57.89 against spin during her 111-ball stay in the league fixture, and has historically been kept quiet by Deepti, Radha and Charani in ODIs - with just 10 boundaries off the 267 balls she has faced off them.

Wolvaardt vs Indian spinners in ODIs