WPL 2026 scenarios: RCB aim direct entry to the final, others in mid-table tussle
Mumbai Indians' win over Royal Challengers Bengaluru on Monday has revived their playoffs hopes in an otherwise underwhelming campaign. Here's what the teams need ahead of the last four league games.
WPL 2026 points table (after match 16)
| Position | Team | P | W | L | NR | Points | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RCB | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | +0.947 |
| 2 | MI | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | +0.146 |
| 3 | DC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -0.169 |
| 4 | GG | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -0.341 |
| 5 | UPW | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -0.769 |
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
Remaining fixture: vs UPW, Jan 29
Despite back-to-back defeats by fair margins, RCB are still well placed for a direct ticket to the final, and have their fate in their own hands for the same. A win in their final league game against UPW will confirm that, while they can make it even otherwise.
The only way they can lose out on the top spot is if they stay at 10 points and the winner of Tuesday's game (DC vs GG) gets to 10 as well, and surpass them on NRR. DC are slightly better placed of the two teams to do that with a better NRR (-0.169 to GG's -0.341). Say if RCB lose to UPW by 60 runs, DC will have to win their last two league games with a combined margin of around 88 runs to pip RCB on NRR. If GG get to 10 points, they would need a combined margin of 109 runs to go past RCB (assuming the same 60-run defeat margin for the latter).
(Assuming a first innings score of 160 in each case, the average first innings score in five WPL matches in Vadodara in WPL 2026 so far is 159).
Mumbai Indians
Remaining fixture: vs GG, Jan 30
MI have the best NRR among the four contenders for the last two playoffs spots, and that could've been even higher if not for Richa Ghosh's late blitz on Monday. They face GG in their last league game, against whom they have a perfect 8-0 record, and another win should suffice. The only way for them to get knocked out even with a win over GG is if there is a three-way tie at eight points each and they fall behind on NRR. But MI are at a firm advantage on that front, compared to the other three contenders.
If MI lose to GG, they would need DC to lose their remaining two games and RCB to defeat UPW, which will make for a three-way tie at six points (between MI, DC and UPW), bringing it down to NRR. However, if DC beat GG on Tuesday, and MI then lose to GG, the two-time winners will be knocked out.
Delhi Capitals
Remaining fixtures: vs GG, Jan 27 | vs UPW, Feb 1
Two wins in two would not only confirm a playoff spot for DC, but also give them a chance for a top finish, as explained earlier. One win too, could be good enough to make the playoffs.
If they beat GG on Tuesday, but go down against UPW, they would need to ensure that the defeat margin isn't significant in the latter, if UPW win their other game (vs RCB). UPW, DC and the winner of GG vs MI will be tied at eight points each in this case.
If GG beat both DC and MI, and DC win against UPW, DC will be through with eight points. If DC lose to GG and GG then beat MI, then the margin in the latter fixture (on Friday) would be closely looked at, ahead of the final league game (DC vs UPW).
If DC lose both their games, their only chance is if GG beat MI and RCB beat UPW, making it a three-way tie at six points each and go through on virtue of NRR.
Gujarat Giants
Remaining fixtures: vs DC, Jan 27 | vs MI, Jan 30
Much like DC, GG too have their fate pretty much in their own hands, and even have an outside chance to make it directly to the finals, as mentioned earlier (refer RCB section). Two wins will confirm them a playoffs spot.
If they beat DC but lose to MI, they will make it purely on points if RCB beat UPW and then the latter beat DC. GG, MI and UPW will be tied at eight points each, if UPW beat RCB in the above scenario.
Similarly, if GG lose to DC but beat MI, there could be a three-way tie (eight points) between them, DC and UPW, should UPW win both their games. A defeat for UPW in either of their matches in this case will seal the deal for GG.
Defeats in both their games would knock them out, as both their next opponents are currently level with them at six points.
UP Warriorz
Remaining fixtures: vs RCB, Jan 29 | vs DC, Feb 1
UPW have the worst NRR among the five teams, and can only get to a maximum of eight points if they win both their games. That would be good enough regardless of the NRR, only if GG win both their remaining games and limit MI and DC to six points.
The only way they can go through with six points is again if GG win both and they then win their last game - all results with considerable margins - for them to inch ahead of DC and MI on NRR (a tall ask, given where they stand currently). A win against RCB would be immaterial for UPW if they lose to DC later, as one of GG and MI are already assured to get to eight points.
