Familiar hurdles, familiar ambition for the Netherlands

Snapshot

A perennial flag-bearer for the Associate game at ICC pinnacle events, the Netherlands have not missed a T20 World Cup since the 2012 edition, and arguably have the strongest claim to the title of leading Associate side since the elevation of Ireland and Afghanistan almost a decade ago. The Dutch have a habit of slipping back into the pack between big tournaments, in part due to their difficulty assembling a first-choice side outside of pinnacle events, having lost five of fifteen T20Is against fellow Associates since the last World Cup. The Oranje are back at something like full strength again as they return to the world stage though, facing down two of their nearest Associate rivals together with big dogs Pakistan and hosts India. The Dutch will at least be aiming to reaffirm their preeminence among their peers, while doubtless looking to add to their collection of full member scalps.

The squad, and what it tells us

Scott Edwards (c, wk), Max O'Dowd, Michael Levitt, Colin Ackermann, Bas de Leede, Logan van Beek, Timm van der Gugten, Roelof van der Merwe, Aryan Dutt, Fred Klaassen, Paul van Meekeren, Kyle Klein, Noah Croes (wk), Saqib Zulfiqar, Zach Lion-Cachet.

The first order of business for the Dutch ahead of a World Cup is often the reintegration of habitual absentees, with the likes of Logan van Beek, Colin Ackermann, Timm van der Gugten and Fred Klaassen returning to the squad after domestic commitments kept them out of the side for much of the northern summer. While the Dutch do a fine job of maintaining long-distance group cohesion, the absence of overseas-based tournament regulars such as Daniel Doram and especially Tim Pringle does suggest a growing preference for Netherlands-based players. That said, it's notable that domestic champions VRA Amsterdam are unrepresented in the side, with Shariz Ahmad, Vikram Singh, and Teja Nidamanuru all omitted on form or fitness.

The omission of left arm tweakers Doram and Pringle along with googly-merchant Ahmad leaves the Dutch attack looking remarkably pace-heavy for a tournament in the Subcontinent, with four dedicated quicks in the squad plus seam all-rounders de Leede and van Beek. Veteran Roelof van der Merwe is left as the only southpaw spinner in the squad, and while Ackermann and Lion-Cachet are both more than serviceable part-timers, Aryan Dutt remains the only dedicated offie. With Singh and Nidamanuru left at home the Dutch also look rather reliant on their top four, with everyone from skipper Scott Edwards on down likely to bat a slot or two higher than they might like.

The road to the World Cup

Missing the Super 8s at the last edition, and losing out to Ireland on the rankings, the Dutch found themselves back in Regional Qualifying this cycle, hosting the European finals back in July. They topped the table there with an understrength side, though they were tested by an ever-improving Jersey and dropped a game against an out-of-sorts Scotland. A hastily-arranged tour to Bangladesh later in the summer saw an ad-hoc Dutch side comprehensively bested in the two matches that got to a result, though with less than half of the current World Cup squad travelling for the series it's hard to read too much into that scoreline. Bar the Bangladesh tour, the Netherlands' opener will be their first fixture against full member opposition since the last World Cup, and a measure of their ability to mix it with the top tier.

Last five T20Is: W-W-L-L-NR (latest)

The way they play

As the selection suggests, the Dutch tend to back their game-plan against all comers with only half an eye on expected conditions, backing their seamers to deliver and placing trust in their top order. Michael Levitt generally takes the role of early aggressor while Max O'Dowd plays anchor, while Colin Ackermann and Bas de Leede are also comparatively slow starters. Edwards himself will tend to float up and down the order situationally, targeting spin, and the Dutch have hitters who can make an impact down the order - Timm van der Gugten, Logan van Beek and Aryan Dutt all capable of clearing the ropes - but while the trio do provide a potential sting in the tail, they still lack a reliable closer to provide consistent acceleration at the death. Without Singh the Dutch batting card, in stark contrast to their opponents, is also entirely bereft of left-handers - a deficiency which risks allowing opposing bowlers to settle to their task.

Who can bend a match in 10 balls

The greatest single variable in a Dutch performance is often the mercurial Paul van Meekeren, who can turn a game either way in the space of a spell. The Netherlands got through the regional qualifier despite him being off the boil, but will need him to fire if they hope to escape the group phase. On the batting side the opposition will want to get Michael Levitt early, and the in-form Bas de Leede before a typical slow-burn innings reaches a back-end boiling point.

Scheduling

Yet again the Dutch have been assigned a brutal schedule, swiftly switching cities for each of the three games likely to matter most. They play their opener against Pakistan at Colombo, then face Namibia at Delhi's seamer's graveyard three days later, before moving to spin-friendly Chennai to take on the USA, again with just two days separating the fixtures. Thereafter they've a fairly long wait before playing India at Ahmedabad in the final match of the group. By then their fate may have already been decided, but if not they may at least have the advantage of knowing what is required in terms of net run rate.

Banana peel fixture

The Dutch have had the wood over the Americans of late, but despite the USA's off-field turmoil they are an ever-improving side, and arguably stronger on paper than the Netherlands man-for-man. While historically the USA have tended to amount to less than the sum of their parts, they showed at the last World Cup that trend may not still hold, and it's not hard to imagine them derailing a strong Dutch start to the tournament.

What a good World Cup looks like

While the Netherlands remain the leading Associate on ranking, the 18-point gap between them and Zimbabwe in 12th means securing direct qualification for 2028 on rankings is as it stands an arithmetic impossibility. Consequently, while there's always pride at stake when taking on their peers on the big stage, anything less than a place in the Super 8s and direct qualification for the next edition will feel like defeat to the Dutch, however valiant.