WPL 2026 scenarios: GG revive hopes, DC in a squeeze

After 17 league matches in WPL 2026, only Royal Challengers Bengaluru have sealed a playoff spot, with the other four teams still in contention for the remaining two places. Gujarat Giants' narrow win over Delhi Capitals has kept them alive, even opening up a slim path to a direct final berth. With just three league games left, here's what each team needs to qualify.

Points Table(after match 17)

Gujarat Giants

Remaining fixtures: vs MI, Jan 30

Gujarat Giants moved up to second with a thrilling three-run win over Delhi Capitals, taking their tally to eight points from seven matches. Mumbai Indians and Delhi Capitals follow with six each, ensuring a tightly packed race for the final two playoff spots.

The Giants' simplest route is a win over MI, which would take them to 10 points and secure qualification. They could also qualify with a loss, provided UP Warriorz lose to RCB and then beat Delhi Capitals.

GG also have an outside chance of finishing top and progressing directly to the final, but that would require a heavy win. For instance, if RCB lose to UPW by around 60 runs, the Giants would still need to beat MI by roughly 106 runs (assuming first-innings scores of 160) to overhaul RCB's superior net run rate.

There is also a danger scenario. If GG lose to MI and UPW win both their remaining games (against RCB and DC), or if DC beat UPW in the final match, GG, MI and UPW/DC could all finish on eight points. In that case, net run rate would decide the qualifiers, and with GG currently on a poor -0.271, they would be vulnerable to elimination.

Delhi Capitals

Remaining fixtures: vs UPW-W, Feb 1

After losing three of their first four matches, Delhi Capitals revived their campaign with back-to-back wins over MI and RCB, but Tuesday's defeat to Gujarat Giants has left them little margin for error.

A win in the final game assures DC of qualification as they have better NRR than GG (should GG lose to MI) or top MI on points (should MI lose to GG). UPW can't reach beyond 6 in this case.

If DC lose to UPW, their only realistic chance would involve GG beating MI by a big margin and RCB defeating UPW, resulting in a three-way tie between DC, MI and UPW on six points, with NRR being the tie breaker. The Capitals do, however, hold the advantage of playing the final league match and knowing exactly what is required.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru

Remaining fixture: vs UPW-W, Jan 29

RCB are the only team to have secured a playoff spot so far, but they are yet to lock in a direct entry to the final after successive losses to DC and MI. A win against UPW will confirm a top-two finish and a direct final berth.

Even with a loss, RCB are likely to remain top unless Gujarat Giants win heavily enough against MI to overturn RCB's substantial NRR advantage (refer GG section). As things stand, RCB remain firmly in control of their destiny.

Mumbai Indians

Remaining fixture: vs GG, Jan 30

Defending champions Mumbai Indians have six points from seven games and remain well placed, largely due to having the best net run rate among the four teams fighting for the last two spots.

A win against GG would take MI to eight points and should be enough to qualify, even in a tie with other teams on points, given their NRR advantage. They also hold a dominant head-to-head record against GG, having a 8-0 record against them.

If MI lose to GG, they would then need DC to lose to UPW and RCB to beat UPW, creating a three-way tie between MI, DC and UPW on six points, which would again bring NRR into play - a scenario that still favours MI.

UP Warriorz

Remaining fixtures: vs RCB, Jan 29 | vs DC, Feb 1

Meg Lanning-led UP Warriorz are bottom of the table with four points and the poorest net run rate, but they remain mathematically alive. To have the best chance of qualification, UPW must win both remaining games and reach eight points.

The best scenario for UPW would be to win both their remaining matches against RCB and DC, and hope for GG to defeat MI. In that case, RCB and GG will end up with 10 points while UPW will finish third with eight points. If UPW beat both RCB and DC, and GG lose to MI, a three-way tie on eight points could emerge involving UPW, MI and GG. In such a case, UPW would still need a significant boost to their NRR (-0.769) to stay ahead of at least one other team on eight points.

Even if they lose to RCB in their next match, UPW can still go through with six points. However, they will need to defeat DC in their final game by a big margin and hope that MI also lose to GG by a big margin, taking UPW's NRR above MI and DC.