New Zealand eye historic series win in India

The aura of invincibility that the Indian team has enjoyed at home from time immemorial has come under serious threat in recent times. South Africa, who toured India before New Zealand arrived earlier this month, came close to upstaging the hosts in the three-match ODI series, while the five-game T20I series went down to the wire before Suryakumar Yadav's side clinched it in the final match in Ahmedabad. Not to speak of the two-Test series, which Temba Bavuma's side ran away with a clean sweep.

The ongoing ODI series against New Zealand is now tantalisingly poised, with Gautam Gambhir's side pushed to the wall by a second-string Michael Bracewell-led team. After surviving a close contest in the first ODI in Baroda, the home team were upended by the visitors in the second match in Rajkot, resulting in a winner-take-all scenario for the decider in Indore on Sunday (January 18), which Mohammed Siraj likened to World Cup final.

"I think in the bilateral series, (we) 're trying to push the envelope at times. (We)'re trying to experiment. (But) we're absolutely not saying it's okay to lose," assistant coach Ryan ten Doeschate reasoned about close games and those losses. Then he went on to give away: "They sit a little bit more right than the Test match losses. And we're always trying to win every game with sort of managing the medium to long-term prospects of the team as well. But yeah, it's certainly something we need to get back to, to guys really fearing coming in and playing India."

The 1-1 scoreline tells only part of the series story. The more concerning narrative is the extent to which the visitors have dominated India, not just in the second ODI. They have outplayed, outbatted, outbowled, outfielded and out-caught (India have dropped crucial catches) the hosts - and, more strikingly, outthought and outspun them too.

New Zealand's unheralded spinners, including debutant Jayden Richard Lennox, outperformed India's seasoned spinners. Bracewell, Glenn Phillips and debutant Lennox performed better than Indian stalwarts Ravindra Jadeja and Kuldeep Yadav - 2/89 in 23 overs to 1/126 in 18 overs.

India could not have hoped for a better city than Indore for the series-decider. They enjoy a hundred percent win record at the Holkar Stadium - seven ODIs and seven wins. The small boundaries in the compact venue should help India batters, who have traditionally posted very high totals, including a staggering 418 for five against West Indies in 2011.

India may look to shuffle their XI slightly, with Arshdeep Singh likely to get a look-in in place of Prasidh Krishna, while Nitish Reddy - who got a slap in the wrist from ten Doeschate the other day in Rajkot ("when you do get him game time, he often ends up not doing a heck of a lot in the games") - could cling on to his place in the XI. Jadeja, meanwhile, with Axar Patel breathing down his neck, will have another opportunity to silence whispers about his bowling, and confirm his place in the ODI set-up.

For New Zealand, it is a historic opportunity to beat India in India in a white ball series. They surprised India in a Test series in 2024 and will be keen to replicate that giant-killing feat on the morrow.

"I guess the inspiration comes from the fact that doing things that haven't been done before are possible and obviously we had a very enjoyable time here in that Test Series but obviously a white ball series would be something completely different again and India in the White Ball format are very formidable. There's very few people that have done that. If we can pull that off, that would be fantastic and there would be elation moments for us," Glenn Phillips said.

When: Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 1:30 PM local time

Where: Holkar Stadium, Indore

What to expect: The venue has traditionally been a batter's paradise and it is unlikely to be any different on Sunday. The small boundaries should aid India's free-stroking batters, but New Zealand - who have surprised the hosts by punching above their weight in the series - cannot be underestimated, particularly a certain Daryl Mitchell. But all eyes will be on Rohit and Kohli.

Team News

India

India may bring in Arshdeep for the decider even as but there is unlikely to be any change in the batting line-up. Nitish Reddy, who has not lived up to expectations since the century at MCG in BGT more than a year ago, will be under scrutiny. It will be a big match for him.

Probable XI:Shubman Gill (c), Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul (wk) Ravindra Jadeja, Nitish Kumar Reddy, Harshit Rana, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Siraj, Arshdeep Singh.

New Zealand

New Zealand are on the brink of a historic series win and, if they do pull it off, it will be an incredible achievement for a side missing several of their ODI regulars - Kane Williamson, Rachin Ravindra, Matt Henry and Mitchell Santner among others. Kyle Jamieson has tested Indian batters, Mitchell has given the Indian bowlers sleepless nights, and then there is the 31-year-old left-arm spinner Lennox, who has managed to contain otherwise unstoppable Indian batters in his debut game in Rajkot.

Probable XI: Devon Conway, Henry Nicholls, Will Young, Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips, Mitchell Hay (wk), Michael Bracewell (c), Zakary Foulkes, Kristian Clarke, Kyle Jamieson, Jayden Lennox.

Did you know

- New Zealand are yet to win an ODI bilateral series in India in seven previous attempts. In fact, they have won just 9 out of 41 completed ODI matches against India in India.

- New Zealand has been the best batting side among the full-member teams in the middle overs (11-40) phase against spinners, in which they lost the fewest wickets, have the best batting average, have the second-best run rate (after England), and have played the lowest dot percentage in this World Cup cycle.

- Only England and South Africa have a lower batting average in death overs (41-50) than India among the full-member sides in this World Cup cycle. India's run-rate in death overs (41-50) post CWC 2023 is joint-lowest alongside Sri Lanka's.

- Virat Kohli changed his batting approach since the South Africa series. Since the start of the South Africa series, has been striking at 104.0 in the first 10 balls, hitting a boundary every six balls. In comparison to his numbers post the last World Cup till the SA series, he struck at just 60.71 in the first 10 balls he faced and hit a boundary every 11 balls.

What they said

"The atmosphere is very good because we are getting a lot of input from the seniors. We won the first match and then played the second, so it feels like a high-pressure situation, almost like a World Cup final. Such situations are very rare in India, so it is a great opportunity for us." - Mohammed Siraj on Sunday's decider.

"For us it's obviously just taking every game one step at a time, trying to be where our feet are and I guess putting out best performances for every particular game that we show up for, trying to be as adaptable as possible and I guess go out there and give our best efforts and at the end of the day when we stick to that process hopefully we get ourselves the best chance of a good result. But yeah, obviously India is a very tough place to play and they're an incredible side so for us we're always going to have to try and be at our best to beat them on any given day." - Glenn Phillips on NZ's approach for the decider