Ashes 2025/26: Can England end the drought Down Under?

The Ashes fever is on. In fact, it has begun even before a ball has been sent down. "The worst Australian team since 2010 when England last won, and it's the best English team since then," claimed Stuart Broad on his BBC podcast in a conversation with Jos Buttler. "Not an opinion, it's a fact," he reinstated. Steven Smith meanwhile, has already downplayed the prospect of Bazball being effective Down Under.

How much do the team compositions matter anyway? Australia's star-studded XI, heading into the opening Test of the 2005 epic had 731 Test caps between them, England's had 326. England's bowling attack (including part-timers) heading into that game had 572 Test wickets between them, Shane Warne and Glenn McGrath had 583 and 499 respectively. Yet, England were able to achieve the unimaginable by the end of that summer.

They're now chasing their first Ashes victory Down Under post their 2010/11 triumph. They lost 13 Tests out of 15 across their last three tours, and were saved by a whisker in one of the two drawn ones - the rain-marred Sydney fixture in 2021/22.

Can they turn the tables this time around? Here's a look at the possible key determinants of the much awaited series.

Consistency in selections and fitness woes

Whether you discover it from the get go or stumble upon it accidentally, history suggests that the team with a more settled combination and consistent selections has come out trumps more often.

Australia fielded the same XI across the five Tests in 2013/14 - one of the three 5-0 clean-sweeps in Ashes history. That's the only instance of a team fielding the same XI throughout an Ashes series since they did that way back in 1893. England in 2005 used 12 players across the five games, the only change being an injury forced one in the decider at The Oval (Paul Collingwood for Simon Jones).

Australia's bowling unit has already been marred with the unavailability of Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood at the start of the series. It's a rather unfamiliar territory for the hosts in recent years with regards to their seam attack. Brendan Doggett, almost certain to feature in the series opener in Perth, would be the first specialist quick to make his Test debut for Australia since Scott Boland's telling arrival at the Boxing Day Test four years ago. For contrast and context, England have had nine seam-bowling debutants in the timeframe. The hosts are also primed to have a new-look opening pair with Jake Weatherald named in the squad. The only specialist opener to make his Test debut for Australia in an Ashes series in the last 32 years was Cameron Bancroft in 2017/18.

As for the England camp, there would be a close eye on Jofra Archer and Mark Wood among others, the former having missed the last two editions after a strong first impression in 2019. Needless to say, much rests on Ben Stokes, who delivered inspiring spells with the ball against India, but was ruled out with injury ahead of the decider.

Getting a headstart

England have historically been poor starters in the Ashes, especially in Australia, the hosts leading 12-2 (six draws) in 20 series openers post World War II. The last time England began an away Ashes with a win was in 1986/87 in Brisbane, and eventually took the series 2-1, which remained their only triumph until 2005. In the 2010/11 opener at the same venue, their top-order put on a stellar resistance to save the game after conceding a 221-run first innings lead, which was followed by an innings win in Adelaide. England have lost the Ashes openers of each of the last four editions - home or away - and were, in fact 0-2 down heading into the third Test in 2023.

Their run in the Bazball era, on that front, inspires confidence. They have won nine of the 11 series openers since Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum have taken over, five out of five overseas, including a stunning come-from-behind win in Hyderabad last year.

Opening partnership numbers

Rory Burns' first-ball dismissal to Mitchell Starc at the Gabba in 2021 was only the second instance of a wicket falling on the first legitimate ball of an Ashes series ever, and it all remained downhill for England thereafter. Australia's opening partnership averaged 40.34 across the last three home Ashes series with three century stands, almost double to England's 21.58, with a highest of 85 in 29 outings. Alastair Cook and Andrew Strauss totalled 549 at 78.42 from just seven outings in the 2010/11 series, while Australia, using two different pairs - aggregated 369 at 36.9 in 10 innings.

It's worth remembering that Zak Crawley and Usman Khawaja's form had a direct impact on the match results in the run-filled 2023 series. Crawley and Ben Duckett are already among the all-time top-five England opening pairs in terms of aggregates (2511 runs at 46.50 in 55 innings). Since Duckett's comeback game against Pakistan in Rawalpindi, that's by far the highest aggregate for any opening pair in Tests, the next best being 1269 in 28 innings between Rohit Sharma and Yashasvi Jaiswal. As for Australia, Khawaja has done little of note in the last two years, after a run-filled stretch across 2022 and 2023.

Khawaja in Tests since his comeback 2022

Excluding his 232 in Galle in January, Khawaja's average dips further to 23.85 across his other 30 innings in the latter phase. He has had his troubles against right-arm quicks from around the wicket angle, as was evident against Jasprit Bumrah throughout the last home season.

The essence and the ultimate Test of Bazball

The approach may not necessarily translate into results, and might time and again spark debates over style versus substance, but England would believe that aggression with the bat gives them the best chance. England's batting numbers improved significantly in 2023 as compared to 2021/22 - and though that could be attributed to the conditions, the impact of the ultra-aggressive approach was clearly visible. Australia's batting numbers were almost identical across the two series.

Batting numbers in the last two Ashes series (No. 1-7)

Australia

England

Batting by shot-type percentages in the last two Ashes series (No. 1-7)

Glossary: Att%: % of balls with attacking shots | Rot%: % of balls with rotating (mid) strokes | Def%: % of balls defended | No%: % of balls with no shot offered.

England boast an overall attacking shot percentage of 44.2% in the Bazball era; the corresponding number for the 11 other teams is 31.6%.

The essence of Bazball could be best captured on how England fared against Scott Boland across the last two series. He holds the key to Australia's success in the absence of Cummins and Hazlewood, and has terrific numbers in home conditions.

ENG batters vs Boland in the Ashes

Boland in home Tests

The Smith vs Root showdown

Another 220 runs and a century will take Steve Smith ahead of Jack Hobbs - and only behind Don Bradman - for most runs and hundreds in Ashes history. Root meanwhile, has had an imperious run since 2022, but the all time second-highest run-scorer in Tests is yet to register a hundred in Australia.

Batting record in the Ashes

Overall

In Australia

Root has aggregated 5720 runs at 56.63 in 61 Tests since 2022, the next most in this period is Smith's 3240 at 46.95 in 44 matches. He has got 22 hundreds in the timeframe, well clear of the next best (10). A major contributor to his upsurge in recent years has been his conversion rate from fifties to hundreds, which read 25.75% between his debut until 2020 end, and has risen to 56.41% thereafter.

Key matchups

Smith vs Archer and Wood

The first set between Smith and Archer in 2019 was an intense one, and while the speedster had him unsettled on his debut at Lord's, he's yet to dismiss him in the format. Archer's average speed progressively dipped (albeit marginally) across the four innings he bowled in against India, and that would be looked at closely once again. Mark Wood, meanwhile, has got the better of Smith on four occasions, all to balls released from wide of the crease (70 off 116, Avg: 17.5).

Khawaja vs Wood

Khawaja was Australia's mainstay in their thrilling win at Edgbaston in 2023, and played his part in the second innings at Lord's. His form, as mentioned earlier, has dipped in recent times, and there has been a glaring weakness against the right-arm quicks. The left-hander averages 45 (5 dismissals) to the balls delivered from over the wicket angle, which dips to 17.38 (18 dismissals) from round the wicket in Tests since 2024.

Wood goes an even 50-50 from the two angles against the left-handers in Tests - 465 and 460 balls respectively since 2022 - and has had an even success (12 wickets apiece at 18.16 and 22.75). He has dismissed Khawaja thrice in eight innings, twice in 58 balls from round the wicket.

Root vs Cummins and Hazlewood

Australia's premier right-arm quicks have had the wood over Root in the Ashes. Eight of his 10 dismissals to right-arm quicks in Australia have come against the full or good length deliveries pitched in the channel outside off (average: 18.62), and that could be the zone targeted yet again.

Stokes vs Lyon

We were deprived of this fascinating contest in the Ashes 2023, as Nathan Lyon was ruled out of the series with a calf injury he sustained at Lord's. Stokes has especially countered the off-spinner with attacking strokes, which have fetched him 313 runs at a strike-rate of 163.02 with just four dismissals. He has been fairly kept quiet by right-arm off-spinners compared to the other bowling types since taking over as captain (SR: 52.3).